A recent poll from Quantus Insights found former NFL reporter Michele Tafoya holding a commanding lead in the Republican primary for the open U.S. Senate seat in Minnesota, which opened following the announced retirement of Senator Tina Smith (D-MN).
The survey, which was conducted between May 6-8, among 663 likely Republican primary voters, found Tafoya receiving 51.8 percent support on the initial ballot.
Undecided voters accounted for an additional 27.3 percent of respondents. The remaining support was divided among a number of additional candidates, including former NBA player Royce White at 8.9 percent, Adam Schwarze at 4.1 percent, and Tom Weiler at 1.6 percent. An additional 6.3 percent of respondents indicated that they would prefer to vote for a hypothetical other Republican.
The U.S. Senate seat is open following the decision by incumbent Democrat Senator Tina Smith not to seek re-election. Multiple candidates have declared or filed paperwork for the Republican nomination, including Tafoya, White, Schwarze, and Weiler, along with others such as Alycia Gruenhagen, Christopher Brooks, Mark York, and Ray Petersen.
Tafoya is a retired sports journalist who previously served as a sideline reporter for NBC’s Sunday Night Football. She has benefited from significant name recognition in the race, while White unsuccessfully ran as the Republican nominee against Senator Amy Klobuchar in 2024.
At this stage, the data shows Tafoya with the largest share of support among the named candidates. No other listed candidate reached double digits. The 27.3 percent undecided portion represents a notable segment of the electorate that could shift as the campaign progresses through the summer months leading to the primary, though Tafoya’s early advantage is clearly defined.
NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL | May 6–8, 2026
Minnesota’s Republican U.S. Senate primary begins with Michele Tafoya holding a commanding early lead, while more than one-quarter of likely Republican primary voters remain undecided.
Minnesota GOP Senate Primary
Michele Tafoya:… pic.twitter.com/o07jKIYp4y
— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) May 21, 2026
Despite Tafoya’s commanding primary lead, she or any other hypothetical nominee will be facing an uphill battle in order to be elected in November. Major political forecasting organizations like the Cook Political Report have graded the race as Democrat-leaning due to the state’s partisan makeup and voting trends in recent elections.
On the Democratic side, the primary for the open U.S. Senate seat also takes place on August 11, 2026. The main contenders are U.S. Rep. Angie Craig of Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District and Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan.
A Public Policy Polling survey conducted in late April found Flanagan at 44 percent and Craig at 33 percent, with the remainder undecided or supporting other candidates. Earlier polls from January 2026 similarly placed Flanagan ahead, with margins ranging from 8 to 13 points.
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