The White House believes it is closing in on a tentative agreement with Iran that could halt the war and set the stage for broader nuclear negotiations, according to multiple U.S. officials and sources familiar with the talks.
Officials expect Iran to respond to several key points within the next 48 hours. Nothing has been finalized, but sources say the two sides are closer to a deal than at any point since the conflict began.
At the center of the discussions is a one-page memorandum of understanding that would act as a temporary framework. Under the proposal, Iran would agree to pause nuclear enrichment, while the United States would begin lifting sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds. Both sides would also ease restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global trade route.
The framework would not resolve the conflict outright. Many of the provisions depend on reaching a more detailed follow-up agreement, leaving open the possibility that fighting could resume or negotiations could drag on without a permanent resolution.
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White House officials believe Iran’s leadership remains divided, which could complicate efforts to lock in a deal. Some U.S. officials are still skeptical that even an initial agreement will come together.
The Trump administration has expressed optimism during earlier rounds of negotiations, but no deal has been secured so far. Two U.S. officials said President Donald Trump’s decision to back off a newly announced military operation in the Strait of Hormuz was driven by signs of progress in the talks and a desire to avoid collapsing a fragile ceasefire.
Behind the scenes, the proposed 14-point memorandum is being negotiated by Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, working with Iranian officials both directly and through intermediaries.
As currently drafted, the agreement would formally end hostilities and trigger a 30-day negotiating window to hammer out a more detailed deal covering maritime access, Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief. Talks could take place in Islamabad or Geneva, according to sources.
During that 30-day period, Iran would gradually lift its restrictions on shipping, while the U.S. would scale back its naval blockade. If negotiations collapse, U.S. forces would retain the option to reinstate the blockade or resume military action.
Strait of Hormuz satellite image
One of the biggest sticking points remains the length of a proposed moratorium on uranium enrichment. Sources say the U.S. is pushing for a significantly longer timeline, while Iran has offered a shorter pause. Current discussions center on a compromise that has lasted more than a decade.
The U.S. also wants strict enforcement measures, including provisions that would extend the moratorium if Iran violates the terms. After the pause expires, Iran would be allowed to resume enrichment at low levels.
Under the proposal, Iran would commit to never pursuing a nuclear weapon or engaging in weaponization-related activities. U.S. officials say the deal could also include a ban on underground nuclear facilities and require enhanced inspections, including snap checks by international inspectors.
In exchange, the U.S. would gradually lift sanctions and release frozen Iranian funds held overseas.
One potential breakthrough under discussion involves Iran agreeing to remove its stockpile of highly enriched uranium from the country, a key U.S. demand that Tehran has previously rejected. One option being floated would involve transferring the material to the United States.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio signaled cautious optimism about the talks, saying the process will take time and careful negotiation. He said, “We don’t have to have the actual agreement written in one day,” adding, “This is highly complex and technical. But we have to have a diplomatic solution that is very clear on the topics they are willing to negotiate on and the extent of the concessions they are willing to make at the front end in order to make it worthwhile.”
Rubio also took aim at Iran’s leadership, calling some of the country’s top figures “insane in the brain” and warning it remains unclear whether a deal will ultimately come together.
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