A veteran House Democrat is starting the cycle on shaky ground in a key Ohio battleground, according to internal polling released by the National Republican Congressional Committee.
The NRCC said its survey of likely general election voters in Ohio’s 9th Congressional District shows Republican Derek Merrin leading Rep. Marcy Kaptur 47% to 43%, with 7% undecided. The memo also lists Libertarian David Gedert at 3%.
The early top-line is a problem for the longtime incumbent. Kaptur is stuck below 50% in the head-to-head test, a threshold many campaigns treat as a danger zone for sitting members before the fall fight even ramps up.
The NRCC said Kaptur also begins the race with notable negatives, with 42% of respondents already disapproving of the job she has been doing, even before the general election campaign has begun.
Undecided voters look especially rough for Democrats. The NRCC said 67% of undecided voters disapprove of Kaptur, and that this group currently prefers a Republican by better than a two-to-one margin.
The NRCC memo highlighted several demographic slices that showed Merrin out front:
- Less than college: Merrin 52%, Kaptur 40%
- Union households: Merrin 49%, Kaptur 43%
- Over 55: Merrin 53%, Kaptur 39%
Republicans argue those splits point to a working- and middle-class coalition that is shifting right, especially among older voters and non-college households.
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The NRCC also cited a generic ballot test for Congress in the district, saying Republicans hold a narrow advantage over Democrats, 48% to 45%, with 8% undecided.
The committee framed the numbers as an early snapshot of a broader environment that could put multiple House Democrats on defense heading into November.
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